Effects of vertical wind shear and storm motion on tropical cyclone rainfall asymmetries over the North Indian Ocean     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2021

Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall asymmetry is often influenced by vertical wind shear and storm motion. This study examined the effects of environmental vertical wind shear (200-850 hPa) and storm motion on TC rainfall asymmetry over the North Indian Ocean (NIO): the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the Arabian Sea (AS). Four TC groups were used in this study: Cyclonic Storm (CS), Severe Cyclonic Storm (SCS), Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) and Extreme Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS). The Fourier coefficients for wave number-1 was used to analyze the structure of TC rainfall asymmetry. Results show that the maximum TC rainfall asymmetry was predominantly in the downshear left quadrant in the BoB, while it placed to downshear right quadrant in the AS, likely due to the different primary circulation strength of the TC vortex. For the most intense cyclone (ESCS), the maximum TC rainfall asymmetry was in the upshear left quadrant in the BoB, whereas it was downshear right quadrant in the AS. It is evident for both basins that the magnitude of TC rainfall asymmetry declined (increased) with TC intensity (shear strength). This study also examined the collective effects of vertical wind shear and storm motion on TC rainfall asymmetry. Here, the analysis in case of the strong shear environment (>7 m s^-1) omitted for the AS because the maximum value for this basin was about 7 m s^-1. The result showed that the downshear left quadrant was dominant in the BoB for the maximum TC rainfall asymmetry. In a weak shear environment (<5 m s^-1), on the other hand, downshear right quadrant is evident for the maximum TC rainfall asymmetry in the BoB, while it placed dominantly downshear left quadrant in the AS. In the case of motion-relative wavenumber-1, the maximum TC rainfall asymmetry was dominantly downshear for both basins.  相似文献   

阿拉伯海热带气旋生成特征分析          下载免费PDF全文

李畅  姜霞  沈新勇 《山东气象》2021,41(4):62-72

利用印度气象局（India Meteorological Department,IMD）、国际气候管理最佳路径档案库（International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship,IBTrACS）提供的1982—2020年阿拉伯海热带气旋路径资料,美国国家环境预报中心（National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP）再分析资料,对近39 a阿拉伯海热带气旋源地和路径特征、活跃区域、频数及气旋累积能量（accumulated cyclone energy,ACE）指数的季节特征和年际变化特征进行分析,并结合环境因素,说明其物理成因。结果表明：阿拉伯海热带气旋多发于10°~25°N,65°~75°E海域,5—6月、9—12月发生频数较高且强度较强,1—4月、7—8月发生频数较低且气旋近中心最大风速均小于35 kn;频数的季节变化主要受控于垂直风切变要素;阿拉伯海热带气旋发生频数和ACE近年有上升趋势,年际变化主要受控于海面温度（sea surface temperature,SST）和850 hPa相对湿度要素。  相似文献   

热带气旋闪电活动特征研究综述          下载免费PDF全文

张文娟  张义军  郑栋  吕伟涛  徐良韬 《山东气象》2021,41(3):1-10

针对热带气旋（tropical cyclone,TC）闪电已有研究,首先从闪电活动分布特征、眼壁闪电爆发对TC强度和路径的指示、外雨带闪电活动与雨带对流结构的关系三个方面进行了总结;其次从动力一微物理方面对TC闪电的形成原因和特征机理进行了梳理;最后提出当前研究中存在的两个关键问题,并对后续研究内容进行了展望。基于地基和空基相结合的综合闪电探测得到的闪电属性特征参量,有望建立一个明确的、具有代表性的闪电活动一TC强度变化关系。利用沿海地区架设的三维闪电定位系统结合地基双偏振霄达,针对登陆台风强对流过程开展的综合观测研究,将有助于推进闪电观测资料在台风中小尺度强对流监测、预警和资料同化中的应用。  相似文献   

爆发性气旋的前世今生     

傅刚  陈莅佳  李鹏远  庞华基  张树钦 《气象》2021,(3):261-273

温带气旋是中纬度地区每日天气舞台上最重要的“演员”。在秋冬季节的中高纬度海洋上有一类快速发展的温带气旋——“爆发性气旋”,尚未受到公众的广泛关注。文章围绕这一主题,首先回顾了温带气旋研究的历史,介绍了“爆发性气旋”这一术语产生的渊源,并对多位学者给出的爆发性气旋定义进行了系统梳理,重点介绍了一个考虑风速影响的、修正的爆发性气旋定义,还总结了爆发性气旋的研究现状,最后对其未来数十年的研究前景进行了阐述展望。  相似文献   

Possible Linkage Between Tropical Indian Ocean SST Anomalies and the Date ofFirst and Last Tropical Cyclones Landfalling in the Chinese Mainland     

周群  魏立新  李敏 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2022,28(1):71-81

Bases on the NCEP / NCAR reanalysis products, HadISST dataset, and data of tropical cyclone (TC)landfalling in the Chinese mainland during 1960-2019, the possible impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode andIndian Ocean basin (IOB) mode on the last-TC-landfall date (LLD) and first-TC-landfall date (FLD), respectively, areinvestigated in this study. The LLD is in significantly negative correlation with autumn IOD on the interannual time-scale and their association is independent of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The LLD tends to be earlier when theIOD is positive while becomes later when the IOD is negative. An anomalous lower-level anticyclone is located aroundthe Philippines during October-November, resulting from the change of Walker circulation over the tropical Indo-westPacific Ocean forced by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies related to a positive IOD event. The Philippinesanticyclone anomaly suppresses TCs formation there and prevents TCs from landfalling in the Chinese mainland due tothe anomalous westerly steering flows over southeast China during October-November, agreeing well with the earlierLLD. However, the robust connection between spring IOB and FLD depends on ENSO episodes in preceding winter.There is an anticyclonic anomaly around the Philippines caused by the tropical SST anomalies through modulating theWalker circulation during May-June when the IOB is warming in the El Ni?o decaying phase. Correspondingly, the TCsgenesis is less frequent near the Philippines and the mid-level steering flows associated with the expanded westernPacific subtropical high are disadvantageous for TCs moving towards southeast China and making landfall during May-June, in accordance with the later FLD. By contrast, cooling IOB condition in spring of a La Ni?a decaying year andnegative IOD cases during autumn could produce a completely reversed atmospheric circulation response, leading to anearlier FLD and a later LLD over the Chinese mainland, respectively.  相似文献   

Annual Frequency of Tropical Cyclones Directly Affecting Guangdong Province:Prediction Based on LSTM-FC     

胡娅敏  陈韵竹  何健  刘圣军  闫文杰  赵亮  汪明圣  李芷卉  王娟怀  董少柔  刘新儒 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2022,28(1):45-56

Tropical cyclone (TC) annual frequency forecasting is significant for disaster prevention and mitigation in Guangdong Province. Based on the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and NOAA Extended Reconstructed global sea surface temperature (SST) V5 data in winter, the TC frequency climatic features and prediction models have been studied. During 1951-2019, 353 TCs directly affected Guangdong with an annual average of about 5.1. TCs have experienced an abrupt change from abundance to deficiency in the mid to late 1980 with a slightly decreasing trend and a normal distribution. 338 primary precursors are obtained from statistically significant correlation regions of SST, sea level pressure, 1000hPa air temperature, 850hPa specific humidity, 500hPa geopotential height and zonal wind shear in winter. Then those 338 primary factors are reduced into 19 independent predictors by principal component analysis (PCA). Furthermore, the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), the Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and the Long Short-term Memory Networks and Fully Connected Layers (LSTM-FC) models are constructed relying on the above 19 factors. For three different kinds of test sets from 2010 to 2019, 2011 to 2019 and 2010 to 2019, the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of MLR, GPR and LSTM-FC between prediction and observations fluctuate within the range of 1.05-2.45, 1.00-1.93 and 0.71-0.95 as well as the average absolute errors (AAEs) 0.88-1.0, 0.75-1.36 and 0.50-0.70, respectively. As for the 2010-2019 experiment, the mean deviations of the three model outputs from the observation are 0.89, 0.78 and 0.56, together with the average evaluation scores 82.22, 84.44 and 88.89, separately. The prediction skill comparisons unveil that LSTM-FC model has a better performance than MLR and GPR. In conclusion, the deep learning model of LSTM-FC may shed light on improving the accuracy of short-term climate prediction about TC frequency. The current research can provide experience on the development of deep learning in this field and help to achieve further progress of TC disaster prevention and mitigation in Guangdong Province.  相似文献   

Experiments with the Improved Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation over South China     

马蕴琦  任福民  贾莉  丁晨晨 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2022,28(2):139-153

In recent work, three physical factors of the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation (DSAEF_LTP model) have been introduced, namely, tropical cyclone (TC) track, TC landfall season, and TC intensity. In the present study, we set out to test the forecasting performance of the improved model with new similarity regions and ensemble forecast schemes added. Four experiments associated with the prediction of accumulated precipitation were conducted based on 47 landfalling TCs that occurred over South China during 2004-2018. The first experiment was designed as the DSAEF_LTP model with TC track, TC landfall season, and intensity (DSAEF_LTP-1). The other three experiments were based on the first experiment, but with new ensemble forecast schemes added (DSAEF_LTP-2), new similarity regions added (DSAEF_LTP-3), and both added (DSAEF_LTP- 4), respectively. Results showed that, after new similarity regions added into the model (DSAEF_LTP-3), the forecasting performance of the DSAEF_LTP model for heavy rainfall (accumulated precipitation ≥250 mm and ≥100 mm) improved, and the sum of the threat score (TS250 + TS100) increased by 4.44%. Although the forecasting performance of DSAEF_LTP-2 was the same as that of DSAEF_LTP-1, the forecasting performance was significantly improved and better than that of DSAEF_LTP-3 when the new ensemble schemes and similarity regions were added simultaneously (DSAEF_LTP-4), with the TS increasing by 25.36%. Moreover, the forecasting performance of the four experiments was compared with four operational numerical weather prediction models, and the comparison indicated that the DSAEF_LTP model showed advantages in predicting heavy rainfall. Finally, some issues associated with the experimental results and future improvements of the DSAEF_LTP model were discussed.  相似文献   

一次爆发性气旋引发东北地区暴雨成因分析     

王宁  马梁臣  霍也 《气象与环境学报》2022,38(3):19-28

利用2016年5月2—4日NCEP的FNL 1°×1°再分析资料和GDAS的1°×1°再分析资料、地面观测资料,运用天气学分析、等熵位涡、物理量诊断和水汽来源追踪等方法,从大尺度环流背景、水汽源地和输送、动力和热力机制、等熵位涡等方面对2016年春季一次地面气旋爆发性发展导致的东北地区暴雨天气过程进行了分析。结果表明:位于40°N附近的黄淮气旋北上加强发展,2日14时至3日14时中心气压下降24 hPa,超过爆发性气旋的定义标准。500 hPa高空槽快速加强发展为闭合低涡,低空切变线加强发展为低空低涡,其东部形成明显的低空急流,为暴雨区提供水汽和热量,为东北地区典型的暖式切变降水。等熵位涡自320 K高层向305 K低层输送下传,并逐步向南向东移动,高空正位涡的下传促使地面气旋快速发展,上升运动加强,有利于暴雨的出现。比湿在6 g·kg^(-1)以上对东北地区春末夏初暴雨预报有一定的参考意义。水汽主要来源于东海、黄海及西北太平洋。暴雨区与850 hPa水汽通量散度的负值区、700 hPa垂直速度和850 hPa绝对涡度大值区较为一致,强降水区与850 hPa相当位温密集带和暖区锋生区相对应,降水位于能量锋区以及偏暖区一侧。  相似文献   

2020年秋季海洋天气评述          下载免费PDF全文

孙舒悦  尹尽勇  张增海  柳龙生 《山东气象》2021,41(1):19-29

2020年秋季(9—11月)大气环流特征表现为,北半球极涡呈单极型分布,中高纬环流呈4波型。9—11月,欧亚大陆中高纬环流经向度不断加大,冷空气势力增强。西太平洋副热带高压较历史平均偏强,热带气旋活动频繁。我国近海出现了19次8级以上大风过程,其中冷空气大风过程6次,台风大风过程4次,入海气旋大风过程1次,冷空气与热带气旋共同影响的大风过程7次,冷空气和温带气旋共同影响的大风过程1次。西北太平洋和南海共生成13个热带气旋,其中10月共有7个热带气旋生成,追平10月热带气旋生成数的历史最高纪录;全球其他海域共生成热带气旋26个。我国近海未出现2 m以上大浪过程的天数仅有12 d,约占秋季总日数的13％。秋季,我国近海海域呈明显降温过程,北部海域的降温幅度明显大于南部海域,受连续北上影响我国北部海域的热带气旋活动影响,9月黄海东部及东海东部的海面温度较气候态明显偏低。  相似文献   

SIMULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND LANDFALLING IN CHINA BY REGCM4     

吴婕  高学杰 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2019,25(4):437-447

This study evaluates the performance of the regional climate model RegCM4 in simulating tropical cyclone (TC) activities over the Western North Pacific (WNP) and their landfalling in China. The model is driven by ERA-Interim boundary conditions at a grid spacing of 25 km, with the simulation period as 1991–2010. Results show that RegCM4 performs well in capturing the main structural features of observed TCs, and in simulating the genesis number and annual cycle of the genesis. The model reproduces the general pattern of the observed TC tracks and occurrence frequency. However, significant underestimation of the occurrence frequency as well as the TC intensity is found. Number of the landfalling TCs over China is also much less than the observed. Bias of the model in reproducing the large-scale circulation pattern and steering flow may contribute to the underestimated landfalling TC numbers.  相似文献